Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 12.688921 14.509246 16.467358 18.726520 21.257218 24.000692 27.195892
2025-07-20 9.993755 12.462508 15.321918 18.863148 23.114391 28.036319 34.147505
2025-07-27 8.548145 11.274788 14.586253 18.875230 24.251203 30.732060 39.097651
2025-08-03 7.317853 10.159985 13.763624 18.622808 24.951830 32.858125 43.415756
2025-08-10 6.479543 9.406694 13.259024 18.635972 25.871440 35.185122 47.979617
2025-08-17 5.851352 8.849044 12.930371 18.807360 26.950129 37.714925 52.877869
2025-08-24 5.261006 8.269536 12.498412 18.767670 27.692227 39.783595 57.209791
2025-08-31 4.723512 7.704378 12.023709 18.605833 28.217123 41.540697 61.155726
2025-09-07 4.335351 7.318644 11.764862 18.714083 29.099954 43.800064 65.861878
2025-09-14 4.101707 7.145059 11.798315 19.239441 30.595086 46.969565 71.968385
2025-09-21 3.724773 6.704923 11.384508 19.047038 30.994495 48.553619 75.832840
2025-09-28 3.251814 6.060391 10.596020 18.209247 30.348293 48.544383 77.326292
2025-10-05 3.087166 5.927656 10.626152 18.680710 31.768549 51.715104 83.744955
2025-10-12 2.909486 5.755691 10.577524 19.018040 32.991236 54.637072 89.912075
2025-10-19 2.679851 5.467047 10.306241 18.959873 33.560047 56.553254 94.585348
2025-10-26 2.444991 5.145418 9.951207 18.730650 33.825380 57.989372 98.549459
2025-11-02 2.269743 4.918713 9.743545 18.735433 34.469156 60.040254 103.547806
2025-11-09 2.135077 4.757389 9.639529 18.910604 35.401612 62.584567 109.420860
2025-11-16 1.982449 4.545268 9.424819 18.869687 35.951909 64.513545 114.353048
2025-11-23 1.827915 4.313851 9.155199 18.707425 36.273509 66.063560 118.704199
2025-11-30 1.719579 4.168326 9.037768 18.816074 37.073551 68.438863 124.499845
2025-12-07 1.666936 4.137320 9.140700 19.344019 38.649483 72.189853 132.735079
2025-12-14 1.539796 3.930190 8.877449 19.150670 38.892547 73.643522 137.100975